A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
