Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
